Wang Huiyao: Why China remains world’s best chance for peace in Ukraine

SCMP | June 12 , 2025

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From SCMP， 2025-6-12

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■ With its diplomatic access and record of engagement with all parties, China could be the ingredient required to bring peace in our time.

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By Wang Huiyao | Founder of the Center for China and Globalization(CCG)

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The International Organisation for Mediation launched in Hong Kong late last month, counting 32 countries as founding signatories. An institution designed to supplement and actualise Article 33 of the United Nations Charter is something the world increasingly needs as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine drags into its fourth year.

Recent peace talks in Istanbul produced no appreciable progress, while swings on the battlefield have long since given way to a grinding impasse. Neither side appears capable of achieving peace, much less victory on the battlefield. Meanwhile, sanctions, weapons deliveries and rhetorical escalation continue to deepen global fragmentation.

However, peace could still be in reach if the thorniest issues are addressed. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed openness to direct negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. At the same time, Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations Vassily Nebenzia has reiterated Moscow’s willingness to support a UN-centred peace initiative for Ukraine, suggesting there is at least an opening.

Both parties remain deeply divided. US-led efforts to push the two into accepting a ceasefire have so far failed, and it is little wonder why, given the challenges remaining.

Nato does not hold the answer, and neither does the presence of US troops. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has made it clear that deploying US forces to Ukraine in a peacekeeping role is unacceptable. “Instead, any security guarantee must be backed by capable European and non-European troops,” he told a gathering of transatlantic alliance members in Brussels.

Russia is unwilling to accept a peace deal that it believes would have Nato divisions stationed on its border. Similarly, Ukraine cannot accept a peace on Russia’s terms that would see it disarmed and geopolitically isolated. A mixture of European and non-European peacekeepers will soon be vital in addressing the anxieties that have prolonged the conflict.

The situation calls for a force that is militarily capable and politically neutral, one that can source from actors with no stake in the conflict. It is in this context that China can offer something increasingly scarce to the warring parties in Europe – a credible alternative grounded in neutrality and mutual respect instead of ideology and alliance politics.

China is the largest contributor of peacekeeping troops among the five permanent members of the UN Security Council. Its forces have served across Africa and the Middle East, from Lebanon to Mali. Unlike many Nato and European nations, China retains diplomatic access and trading relationships with both Kyiv and Moscow.

This is more than a theoretical discussion. Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha met on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference in February. During their talk, Wang emphasised China’s commitment to peace through a negotiated resolution. He also highlighted China’s role as Ukraine’s largest trading partner and a leading importer of Ukrainian agricultural goods.

Meanwhile, China’s bilateral trade with Russia reached US$244.8 billion in 2024, making it Russia’s top trading partner. China’s simultaneous economic engagement with both warring states makes it one of the few actors with sufficient leverage to bring both to the table. Its links with Russia give it quiet influence; its openness with Ukraine gives it credibility.

China’s refusal to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been cited as a reason to question its neutrality. In reality, neutrality is reflected in diplomatic behaviour and consistency, not sound bites. China has not provided arms to either side. It has not joined the West in imposing sanctions on Russia, but neither has it shielded Moscow from the consequences of its actions.

Beijing has stayed engaged with both sides when others have walked away. It has even issued two separate peace proposals. As early as 2022, President Xi Jinping spoke against attempts at nuclear coercion, leading to a 12-point peace proposal on February 24, 2023, the anniversary of the Russian invasion. China and Brazil followed up last year with a six-point joint statement, proposing an international peace conference with equal participation and support from neutral actors.

Western observers have dismissed China’s initiatives as vague and driven by self-interest. Yet China’s connections to Russia and Ukraine mean there is no country better placed to mediate. Beijing wants to make diplomacy possible, not dictate terms.

Unfortunately, much of Western debate remains framed by talk of a China-Russia axis which has distorted perceptions and narrowed options. This narrative ignores China’s enduring ties with Ukraine and misreads Beijing’s intentions. China’s strategic interest is in promoting regional stability and preventing economic fallout. It does not benefit from a prolonged war that disrupts supply chains, raises global inflation and hardens bloc rivalries.

China’s regional weight and open diplomatic channels give it a unique opportunity to act quietly but decisively. None of this will be easy. Peace in Ukraine will require difficult compromise and international coordination, and this will not come via escalation or exclusion. A new pathway – one that both involves the old actors and brings in new ones, in particular China and the Global South – must be created to restore order through dialogue, balance and quiet diplomacy.

Ukraine deserves a peace that lasts, and the world deserves a process that works. With its diplomatic access and track record of engagement with all parties, China could be the decisive last mile required to bring about peace in our time.

As we celebrate the 80th anniversary of the UN this year, let us renew our commitment to peace and mediation. We must take this opportunity to break the impasse.

From SCMP， 2025-6-12